Total Performance Data tips

Published 9.12 01/04

I’ll start by saying that I am very cautious about overlooking Mary Stanford. She is making her debut over fences for Patrick Neville, who is currently operating at a 33% strike rate and given that she was a point-to-point winner over 3 miles, this ought to suit.

She was soundly beaten in a handicap hurdle at Newcastle last time, but there have been 3 winners come out of that race and her jumping fluency score ranked 2nd, with an average loss of 6% of her speed over her hurdles. I can’t bring myself to back her on the form she has shown under rules, but if the market support comes she is clearly a danger.

Neither Stratagem nor Ailt An Chorrain made much appeal. The latter needs to confirm his stamina for this trip after being beaten 36 lengths at Catterick, whilst the former hasn’t won a race since 2022. Stratagem did record the best run-out speed in the field when 3rd in a Veteran’s race at Doncaster last time, but he has no secrets from the handicapper at this stage and there are some lightly raced horses in this field who seem more likely to improve.

Realisation was a winner over this course and distance last month and that form looks to be relatively solid given that both the 3rd and 5th have hit the frame since. She had the best top speed, the best run-out speed and her final furlong time of 15.9s was nearly half a second faster than everything else.

My only real concern is her jumping. She lost an average of 17.5% of her speed over her fences last time, including a very awkward leap over the last and that meant she recorded the worst fluency score in the field. Had she been under more pressure, that may well have cost her and with a 6lb rise in the weights to 111, a mark that she has failed to win from in the past, I think she is opposable. 

MOUNTAIN MIKE (3:10 Sedgefield) made the most appeal.

He was 3rd to the talented Castle Ivers in a point-to-point and definitely improved when stepping up in trip at both Exeter and then Hereford last time. At an average speed loss of 10% over his fences, he had the most fluent jumping score in the latter part of the race that day and also galloped through the line with a race best run-out speed of 26.19mph.

He couldn’t quite get himself on terms with the winner (Bective Abbey) who was able to dictate in front and hold the inside line, but it was a solid effort and having dropped a pound and now getting the benefit of Luke Scott’s 3lb claim, he should go well again with this track more likely to suit.

This race (7:30 Kempton) looks like the type of early season 3-year-old handicap that can be followed as a piece of form throughout the season with several exciting types on show.

Moment of Light got the better of Parisian Scholar when they met over this course and distance in February and given that he was the faster horse in each of the last 3 furlongs, I don’t really see any reason to think that the form could be reversed, especially in this small field. The handicapper has given Parisian Scholar a chance with a 6lb swing at the weights, but there are a couple of potential improvers in the field who may well have more in hand.

Devil’s Peak could improve for the Gosdens, but his form at the end of last season was fair at best and he didn’t look especially well treated when 4th on his handicap debut at Newmarket in November.

The cheekpieces are added for Green Falcon and given the way that he appeared reluctant to go by at Yarmouth on his latest start, I can see that angle. The front pair finished a long way clear of the rest and if he runs well, it is worth noting that the horse who beat him at Yarmouth, Baltic Fleet, is entered at Bath on Sunday.

He ran the fastest final furlong at Yarmouth and recorded a better run-out speed than the winner, but I can’t shake the theory that he could have won if he had wanted to. Given that David Menuisier has yet to really get going this season, I would prefer to wait and will instead get behind STARSHIP TROOPER.

Andrew Balding is operating at a 24% strike rate in the last 14 days and with Oisin Murphy booked for this handicap debut, I think his mount should prove to be better than a mark of 76.

Although he finished 3rd at Southwell last time, I think he bumped into quite a smart horse for Karl Burke (Ravenspire) and the slow pace and finishing speed of 111% meant the race turned into a sprint. Starship Trooper closed with furlong splits of 11.64 and 12.07s with a late speed figure of 37.7 mph. That speed compares well with his rivals here and he looks highly likely to improve now he is handicapping.

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.