Published 08:57 - all selections online

DURAN is on a long losing run, but he won’t get many better chances to end it than in the 5f handicap at Nottingham today (1.16), this race representing a further drop in grade after he showed a bit more at Haydock last time.

His odds might seem skinny for a horse on a losing run of 17, but he has been competing in much better races than this – his first six runs this year were all in class 3 or 4 and he shaped better dropped to 0-75 grade at Haydock, clear of the remainder in fourth.

He now carries top weight (which is only 9-09) in a 0-70 grade and faces a much lower calibre of rivals, many of today’s field being regulars in class 6 events. It’s only a year ago that he was second in a 0-105 handicap on heavy ground at Doncaster and he wouldn’t need to be close to that form to take this. His most interesting rival is probably Alnofoor, who is lightly-raced for an 8yo, relishes testing ground and is well handicapped on his Irish soft-ground form. He looks sure to run well, but most of his form has come in low-grade events and it remains to be seen if he can handle Duran if the latter gives his running.

HUGH'S BEST BETS (scale 1-5 points)

1.16 NOTTINGHAM

1pt win DURAN (3-1 and 11-4 general)

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